Odds Of Flopping A Set
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There are very few feelings in poker that beat the one of flopping quads or a straight flush. There you are, sitting with the absolute nuts and your only job is to figure out how to milk your opponents most money you can.
*Odds Of Flopping A Straight
*Hitting Set
*Odds Of Flopping A Set Without A Pocket Pair
But if you’ve been playing poker for a little while, you’ve probably realized these rare hands don’t come around nearly as often as you’d like.
The odds of being dealt a pocket pair is 16 to 1 or 1/17. The odds of floping a set if you hold a pocket pair is 7.5 to 1 or 1/8.5. Apparently the odds of flopping a flush draw are 10.94% for suited connectors and 10.45% for hitting an 8-out (open-ended, I don’t know about double gut-shot) straight draw. Could someone point to a resource or do it by themselves where they explain the odds of hitting either a flush draw or a straight draw or both.
This is because the odds of being dealt a royal flush or other top-ranking hands are quite small. If you want to know more about exact numbers and the math behind rare hands in Texas Hold’em, keep on reading. Committing these facts to memory will probably make those rare occasions when you actually do manage to make one of these hands even more exciting and profitable.Royal Flush (Straight Flush)
A royal flush is essentially the best possible hand that you can get in poker, but it’s still just a straight flush. So the odds of being dealt a royal are exactly the same as being dealt any other straight flush. You just need to have two hole cards that can make a royal, i.e., anything between a 10 and an Ace.
In this article, we’ll focus on the instances where you’ve got to use both of your cards to make your straight flush since doing it with just one card is neither as rare nor as lucrative, as you’ll have a four-straight, four-flush board that most players will tread very lightly on.
For two cards to be able to make a straight flush on the flop, they need to be suited and connected. However, not all of the starting hands meeting these criteria have the same odds, as some of them have more options than the others. Below is the table showing chances of flopping a straight flush with different types of suited connectors.HandNumber of possible combosPercentageA2sJust one (2-3-4)0.005%Suited connectors (i.e. 78s)Four (4-5-6, 5-6-9, 6-9-10, 9-10-J)0.02%One-gappers (i.e. 68s)Three (4-5-7, 5-7-9, 7-9-10)0.015%Two-gappers (i.e. 69s)Two (5-7-8, 7-8-10)0.001%Odds Of Flopping A Straight
If you’ve been wondering why that straight flush never comes in when you decide to peel the flop with your suited connectors, the table above probably offers a bit of a new perspective. The odds of this happening, even with the best possible candidate, are very slim.Making a Straight Flush on Turn or River
More often than flopping a straight flush, you’ll actually flop a straight flush draw. It will be either an open-ended draw (with two possible cards to complete it) or a gutshot draw where only one card from the whole deck can improve you to straight flush.
Once you do flop that draw, the odds of making the hand actually improve quite significantly, even though they’re still low.Draw typeChance to improve on the turnChance to improve by the riverGutshot2.1%4.3%Open-ender4.3%8.4%
So if you have an open-ended straight flush draw on the flop, you have decent odds of hitting by the river. If your opponents will let you and if you account for the implied odds when you do hit this highly unlikely hand, these types of draws are sometimes worth chasing.Quads (Four of a Kind)
Quads are another rare Hold’em hand although not nearly as rare as a straight flush. You’ve probably seen quite a few of these during your time playing poker and have had them at least once or twice yourself as well.
Once again, I’ll focus on odds of making quads when you are dealt a pocket pair as that’s the kind of quads you want to have and that you can extract some value from.
First of all, if you run the numbers, the overall odds of making quads with a random pocket pair if you were to just deal five cards (flop, turn, and river) are 0.816%. This is not a very useful stat, though, as you’ll rarely get to see all five cards unless you improve on the flop (i.e., flop a set).
Below are some more useful numbers.Odds of flopping quadsOdds of turning quads (after flopping a set)Odds of getting quads by the river (after flopping a set)0.245%2.1%4.3%
If you compare these numbers with the aforementioned ones for the straight flush, you can see why you’ve likely seen quads much more often than straight flushes.
And, if you were wondering what the odds are of flopping quads with just one card (i.e., when not holding a pocket pair), that would be 0.001%.In Conclusion
Rare poker hands are at the top of hand strength charts for a reason. They’re very hard to get and when you do get them, you’ll almost always end up winning a pot. Even when you do lose with one of these hands, you might end up a winner as many cardrooms and casinos offer nice bad beat jackpots to tackle these precise scenarios.
Having seen these numbers, you’ll probably have a somewhat better idea of how (un)likely you are to be dealt a straight flush or quads during any individual session. Admittedly, this information won’t help you get any better in flopping royals. However, knowing the exact odds could save you a lot of money in the long run as you’ll know when to hold’em and when to fold’em.Other Posts You’ll Enjoy
*5 Helpful Poker Tools and Poker Apps to Improve Your Game
There’s lots of helpful poker software out there these days, but a select few poker tools and apps take the case as the preeminent programs…
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Here are some important probabilities in Omaha that returns in different situations. Knowledge about probabilities will help you to better evaluate situations in poker. You will , for example, know when you should call and when you shouldn’t, and, vice versa, know when to fold and when the odds are in your favor.
Table 1. Playing situationsDrawing hands probabilitiesOddsPercentDouble wraparound straight draw (e.g. hand: 9-8-5-4, flop: 7-6-x)0.48-168%Wraparound straight draw (e.g. hand: 8-5-4-x, flop: 7-6-x)0.67-160%Straight flush draw0.84-154%Hitting a full house with three pairs 3-124%Hitting a full house with two pairs5.1-116.5%Hitting quads with a set21.5-14.5%Starting hands
There are many starting hands in Omaha (16.432 if not all suit combinations are counted), which makes it difficult to get an overview. Table 2 will hopefully increase that overview a bit. Table 2. Starting hand versus average handSituationPercentA-A-K-K double suited to win against average hand73%A-A-K-K rainbow to win against average hand68%A-A-7-7 double suited to win against average hand72%A-A-7-7 rainbow to win against average hand67%A-A-J-T double suited to win against average hand76%A-A-J-T rainbow to win against average hand71%J-T-9-8 double suited to win against average hand56%J-T-9-8 rainbow to win against average hand49%Comments
Exemple of a double suited hand: Q♥ A♥ 2♦ K♦
Exemple of a rainbow hand: Q♥ A♣ 2♠ K♦
The best Omaha hands are less bigger favorites against an average hand compared to Texas Hold’em.
In Texas Hold’em, common knowledge is that A-A is very big favorite against all other hands. In Omaha, A-A as a part of a hand is far from that strong. In general, an A-A-x-x hand versus a random four-card hand is a 70-30 favorite in average (if all the starting hands that are normally folded are excluded, the A-A-x-x hands will be even less favorites).Made hands versus draws
A typical feature in an Omaha Hi game is a set against a hand with several drawing possibilities. The made hand will not be a very big favorite (sometimes it is an underdog), so the recommended strategy is to play fast and bet/raise the pot in these situations. Table 3. Made hand versus drawing handSituationPercentTop set against flush draw70%-30%Middle set against flush draw70%-30%Top set against flush draw + two pairs68%-32%Set against wraparound straight draw52%-48%Set against double wraparound straight draw53%-47%No decimals are used. The numbers are only approximal.
Comments
Factors that can affect the odds are for example blocking cards.
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In Omaha, hands with flush draws are often more likely to win than straight draws. Table 4. Drawing handsSituationPercentFlush draw against wraparound60%-40%Flush draw against double wraparound55%-45%No decimals are used. The numbers are only approximal.
CommentsHitting Set
Since that many cards are in action, there are often combined possibilities, which makes it hard to give general percentages. A hand with a flush draw has mostly something else, like a pair or a straight draw as well.Odds Of Flopping A Set Without A Pocket Pair
Related article:Omaha strategy
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There are very few feelings in poker that beat the one of flopping quads or a straight flush. There you are, sitting with the absolute nuts and your only job is to figure out how to milk your opponents most money you can.
*Odds Of Flopping A Straight
*Hitting Set
*Odds Of Flopping A Set Without A Pocket Pair
But if you’ve been playing poker for a little while, you’ve probably realized these rare hands don’t come around nearly as often as you’d like.
The odds of being dealt a pocket pair is 16 to 1 or 1/17. The odds of floping a set if you hold a pocket pair is 7.5 to 1 or 1/8.5. Apparently the odds of flopping a flush draw are 10.94% for suited connectors and 10.45% for hitting an 8-out (open-ended, I don’t know about double gut-shot) straight draw. Could someone point to a resource or do it by themselves where they explain the odds of hitting either a flush draw or a straight draw or both.
This is because the odds of being dealt a royal flush or other top-ranking hands are quite small. If you want to know more about exact numbers and the math behind rare hands in Texas Hold’em, keep on reading. Committing these facts to memory will probably make those rare occasions when you actually do manage to make one of these hands even more exciting and profitable.Royal Flush (Straight Flush)
A royal flush is essentially the best possible hand that you can get in poker, but it’s still just a straight flush. So the odds of being dealt a royal are exactly the same as being dealt any other straight flush. You just need to have two hole cards that can make a royal, i.e., anything between a 10 and an Ace.
In this article, we’ll focus on the instances where you’ve got to use both of your cards to make your straight flush since doing it with just one card is neither as rare nor as lucrative, as you’ll have a four-straight, four-flush board that most players will tread very lightly on.
For two cards to be able to make a straight flush on the flop, they need to be suited and connected. However, not all of the starting hands meeting these criteria have the same odds, as some of them have more options than the others. Below is the table showing chances of flopping a straight flush with different types of suited connectors.HandNumber of possible combosPercentageA2sJust one (2-3-4)0.005%Suited connectors (i.e. 78s)Four (4-5-6, 5-6-9, 6-9-10, 9-10-J)0.02%One-gappers (i.e. 68s)Three (4-5-7, 5-7-9, 7-9-10)0.015%Two-gappers (i.e. 69s)Two (5-7-8, 7-8-10)0.001%Odds Of Flopping A Straight
If you’ve been wondering why that straight flush never comes in when you decide to peel the flop with your suited connectors, the table above probably offers a bit of a new perspective. The odds of this happening, even with the best possible candidate, are very slim.Making a Straight Flush on Turn or River
More often than flopping a straight flush, you’ll actually flop a straight flush draw. It will be either an open-ended draw (with two possible cards to complete it) or a gutshot draw where only one card from the whole deck can improve you to straight flush.
Once you do flop that draw, the odds of making the hand actually improve quite significantly, even though they’re still low.Draw typeChance to improve on the turnChance to improve by the riverGutshot2.1%4.3%Open-ender4.3%8.4%
So if you have an open-ended straight flush draw on the flop, you have decent odds of hitting by the river. If your opponents will let you and if you account for the implied odds when you do hit this highly unlikely hand, these types of draws are sometimes worth chasing.Quads (Four of a Kind)
Quads are another rare Hold’em hand although not nearly as rare as a straight flush. You’ve probably seen quite a few of these during your time playing poker and have had them at least once or twice yourself as well.
Once again, I’ll focus on odds of making quads when you are dealt a pocket pair as that’s the kind of quads you want to have and that you can extract some value from.
First of all, if you run the numbers, the overall odds of making quads with a random pocket pair if you were to just deal five cards (flop, turn, and river) are 0.816%. This is not a very useful stat, though, as you’ll rarely get to see all five cards unless you improve on the flop (i.e., flop a set).
Below are some more useful numbers.Odds of flopping quadsOdds of turning quads (after flopping a set)Odds of getting quads by the river (after flopping a set)0.245%2.1%4.3%
If you compare these numbers with the aforementioned ones for the straight flush, you can see why you’ve likely seen quads much more often than straight flushes.
And, if you were wondering what the odds are of flopping quads with just one card (i.e., when not holding a pocket pair), that would be 0.001%.In Conclusion
Rare poker hands are at the top of hand strength charts for a reason. They’re very hard to get and when you do get them, you’ll almost always end up winning a pot. Even when you do lose with one of these hands, you might end up a winner as many cardrooms and casinos offer nice bad beat jackpots to tackle these precise scenarios.
Having seen these numbers, you’ll probably have a somewhat better idea of how (un)likely you are to be dealt a straight flush or quads during any individual session. Admittedly, this information won’t help you get any better in flopping royals. However, knowing the exact odds could save you a lot of money in the long run as you’ll know when to hold’em and when to fold’em.Other Posts You’ll Enjoy
*5 Helpful Poker Tools and Poker Apps to Improve Your Game
There’s lots of helpful poker software out there these days, but a select few poker tools and apps take the case as the preeminent programs…
*Three Alternative Card Games to Poker
Another great article for the Cardplayer Lifestyle poker blog from a guest contributor.
*Poker Rooms Should Start Spreading Wild Card Games
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*Give Wild Card Poker Games a Chance
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Here are some important probabilities in Omaha that returns in different situations. Knowledge about probabilities will help you to better evaluate situations in poker. You will , for example, know when you should call and when you shouldn’t, and, vice versa, know when to fold and when the odds are in your favor.
Table 1. Playing situationsDrawing hands probabilitiesOddsPercentDouble wraparound straight draw (e.g. hand: 9-8-5-4, flop: 7-6-x)0.48-168%Wraparound straight draw (e.g. hand: 8-5-4-x, flop: 7-6-x)0.67-160%Straight flush draw0.84-154%Hitting a full house with three pairs 3-124%Hitting a full house with two pairs5.1-116.5%Hitting quads with a set21.5-14.5%Starting hands
There are many starting hands in Omaha (16.432 if not all suit combinations are counted), which makes it difficult to get an overview. Table 2 will hopefully increase that overview a bit. Table 2. Starting hand versus average handSituationPercentA-A-K-K double suited to win against average hand73%A-A-K-K rainbow to win against average hand68%A-A-7-7 double suited to win against average hand72%A-A-7-7 rainbow to win against average hand67%A-A-J-T double suited to win against average hand76%A-A-J-T rainbow to win against average hand71%J-T-9-8 double suited to win against average hand56%J-T-9-8 rainbow to win against average hand49%Comments
Exemple of a double suited hand: Q♥ A♥ 2♦ K♦
Exemple of a rainbow hand: Q♥ A♣ 2♠ K♦
The best Omaha hands are less bigger favorites against an average hand compared to Texas Hold’em.
In Texas Hold’em, common knowledge is that A-A is very big favorite against all other hands. In Omaha, A-A as a part of a hand is far from that strong. In general, an A-A-x-x hand versus a random four-card hand is a 70-30 favorite in average (if all the starting hands that are normally folded are excluded, the A-A-x-x hands will be even less favorites).Made hands versus draws
A typical feature in an Omaha Hi game is a set against a hand with several drawing possibilities. The made hand will not be a very big favorite (sometimes it is an underdog), so the recommended strategy is to play fast and bet/raise the pot in these situations. Table 3. Made hand versus drawing handSituationPercentTop set against flush draw70%-30%Middle set against flush draw70%-30%Top set against flush draw + two pairs68%-32%Set against wraparound straight draw52%-48%Set against double wraparound straight draw53%-47%No decimals are used. The numbers are only approximal.
Comments
Factors that can affect the odds are for example blocking cards.
The new Betfair App is here. Redesigned from the ground up, the new Betfair App helps you get better odds, faster. Available on the App Store and for Android Devices, check out the range of brand new features you can enjoy with the brand new Betfair App. Betfair Pty Limited is licensed and regulated by the Northern Territory Government of Australia. Betfair Pty Limited’s gambling operations are governed by its Responsible Gambling Code of Conduct and for South Australian residents by the South Australian Responsible Gambling Code of Practice. About your choices. Don’t chase your losses. Betfair australia app. It’s no wonder it’s the most popular third party betting application for Betfair customers in Australia and New Zealand. Followed closely by Gruss and Geeks Toy. It’s depth of features suit anyone from one click racing punters to cricket traders to automated customers. Betfair Australia have created the Betfair Hub to champion winning. Unlike bookmakers, Betfair Australia want clients who win. So we invest in expert content from pro punters. You’ll find tips, strategies and techniques that are used by winners on the Betfair Exchange.Flush draws versus straight draws
In Omaha, hands with flush draws are often more likely to win than straight draws. Table 4. Drawing handsSituationPercentFlush draw against wraparound60%-40%Flush draw against double wraparound55%-45%No decimals are used. The numbers are only approximal.
CommentsHitting Set
Since that many cards are in action, there are often combined possibilities, which makes it hard to give general percentages. A hand with a flush draw has mostly something else, like a pair or a straight draw as well.Odds Of Flopping A Set Without A Pocket Pair
Related article:Omaha strategy
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